Mobile Web… RIP? How about not.

April 17, 2008 in Opinion

An article at Read Write Web posed the aforementioned question, to which they claimed, “Some Mobile Entrepreneurs Say Yes.” Ever sit in the ocean gripping a boogie board watching dud waves pass you by for an hour, walk back to land disappointed and then see the Holy Grail of waves gracefully crash upon the shore? These are those guys… and they are just bitter.

The story’s foundation is actually a sad one. Russell Beattie owns what is left of Mowser, a mobile web browser that turns normal sites into easily browsed mobile content. His most recent blog post, titled the end of mowser, signals the end of a company who fell just short of riding a huge wave. His own thoughts were a little more depressed in nature:

Beyond the fact that I’m irretrievably in debt, the general answer is that I don’t actually believe in the “Mobile Web” anymore, and therefore am less inclined to spend time and effort in a market I think is limited at best, and dying at worst.

Unfortunately for Beattie, the American Mobile market has not yet picked up much momentum. With the developments of the iPhone SDK and Android, he may have just missed the opening he needed. While he suggests the mobile web market is ominous, he does offer a caveat:

I’m talking specifically about sites that are geared 100% towards mobile phones and have little to no PC web presence.

He goes on to say that the iPhone proved the mobile web market was non-existent to begin with and that new devices (like the iPhone) and full web browsers will be the reason it grows. But still… it makes sense… by the time you gear your company to a purely mobile concept you’ll be left in the dust because your mobile phone will do everything your computer does. Or will it?

What Beattie seems to have left out is the concept behind MOBILE. Your mobile knows where you are and when you are. Your phone knows what you’re near and when you’re near it. Your phone (can) know those same facts about your friends and families. The REAL success stories in the mobile marketplace will be the companies that take these tidbits of knowledge and piece them together to create meaningful applications and services that make our lives easier. THAT is the future of Mobile.

In actuality, all hope to do was bridge the gap between an insufficient mobile web market and a flourishing mobile web market. While the infrastructure, handsets, websites, applications, etc… were “on their way up”, Mowser would make it easier for consumers and companies across the board. Unfortunately for Russell, mobilized web technology will not slowly gain momentum - it will hit a point where it “makes sense” and the avalanche will begin.

What will trigger that “aha” moment for Americans? Since not everybody can afford an iPhone and wants AT&T, we’re hoping Android will fill that void. The market is more than ready for a “solution” but Beattie is right - they’re only going to trickle in until some major improvements are made. And even then, your chances of being “found” and “popular” are incredibly minimized if your presence isn’t at least partially based on the web.

Beattie’s farewell was a sad one and topped off with a “What now?” that all too many entrepreneurs face but not enough people hear about:

Seriously… A salary will be a good thing to have again. I’m *thousands* of dollars in debt to my family and friends, maxed out on every credit card (all of which are in collections), on my last chance for my apartment (if I bounce one more check…), had my car repossessed *twice*, electricity turned off, cellphones switched off, landline canceled outright, and on more than one occasion (this weekend in particular) eaten little more than buttered macaroni as I waited for an overdue PayPal deposit to arrive (3-4 days? Come on!). Having a steady income will be a welcome mental break, believe me.

Oh… and by the way… if you’re in the market… he’s looking for a job.

The fact that mobile technology is still in its infancy means a everyone is going to have their own opinion. The opinion of Michael Mace at Mobile Opportunity starkly contrasts that of Mr. Beattie. He claims that Mobile Applications will soon be dead while the Mobile Web will soon be the “it” thing.

Unfortunately, Mr. Mace basis the first portion of his argument on the failures of PALM. If anybody is familiar with the brilliance of PALM, they’ll understand that the first half of this sentence fragment is an oxymoron. To use Palm as an example for mobile devices is like using Polaroid as an example for Digital Cameras. They missed their opportunity to grow into something bigger and will soon be left behind.

Although he admits there are exceptions to the rule, he sticks buy his conclusion that: ” If you’re a mobile developer, you should consider stopping native app development and shifting to a mobile-optimized website.”

The most accurate criticism is that, as Elia Freedman so cunningly put it, “there are three million platforms with a hundred users each.” Another vote for Android anybody?

I respectfully disagree with the opinion that mobile ANYthing is dead. In fact, the mobile revolution is just starting. I could explain why, but an article by Daniel Langendorf called, “The Mobile Web Isn’t Dead. It’s Just Starting.” says mostly everything I would have.

Thanks Daniel… will all these Mobile death prophecies filling up my feed reader, your article prevented me from questioning my sanity.

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