Mobile Web… RIP? How about not.

An article at Read Write Web posed the aforementioned question, to which they claimed, “Some Mobile Entrepreneurs Say Yes.” Ever sit in the ocean gripping a boogie board watching dud waves pass you by for an hour, walk back to land disappointed and then see the Holy Grail of waves gracefully crash upon the shore? These are those guys… and they are just bitter.

The story’s foundation is actually a sad one. Russell Beattie owns what is left of Mowser, a mobile web browser that turns normal sites into easily browsed mobile content. His most recent blog post, titled the end of mowser, signals the end of a company who fell just short of riding a huge wave. His own thoughts were a little more depressed in nature:

Beyond the fact that I’m irretrievably in debt, the general answer is that I don’t actually believe in the “Mobile Web” anymore, and therefore am less inclined to spend time and effort in a market I think is limited at best, and dying at worst.

Unfortunately for Beattie, the American Mobile market has not yet picked up much momentum. With the developments of the iPhone SDK and Android, he may have just missed the opening he needed. While he suggests the mobile web market is ominous, he does offer a caveat:

I’m talking specifically about sites that are geared 100% towards mobile phones and have little to no PC web presence.

He goes on to say that the iPhone proved the mobile web market was non-existent to begin with and that new devices (like the iPhone) and full web browsers will be the reason it grows. But still… it makes sense… by the time you gear your company to a purely mobile concept you’ll be left in the dust because your mobile phone will do everything your computer does. Or will it?

What Beattie seems to have left out is the concept behind MOBILE. Your mobile knows where you are and when you are. Your phone knows what you’re near and when you’re near it. Your phone (can) know those same facts about your friends and families. The REAL success stories in the mobile marketplace will be the companies that take these tidbits of knowledge and piece them together to create meaningful applications and services that make our lives easier. THAT is the future of Mobile.

In actuality, all hope to do was bridge the gap between an insufficient mobile web market and a flourishing mobile web market. While the infrastructure, handsets, websites, applications, etc… were “on their way up”, Mowser would make it easier for consumers and companies across the board. Unfortunately for Russell, mobilized web technology will not slowly gain momentum - it will hit a point where it “makes sense” and the avalanche will begin.

What will trigger that “aha” moment for Americans? Since not everybody can afford an iPhone and wants AT&T, we’re hoping Android will fill that void. The market is more than ready for a “solution” but Beattie is right - they’re only going to trickle in until some major improvements are made. And even then, your chances of being “found” and “popular” are incredibly minimized if your presence isn’t at least partially based on the web.

Beattie’s farewell was a sad one and topped off with a “What now?” that all too many entrepreneurs face but not enough people hear about:

Seriously… A salary will be a good thing to have again. I’m *thousands* of dollars in debt to my family and friends, maxed out on every credit card (all of which are in collections), on my last chance for my apartment (if I bounce one more check…), had my car repossessed *twice*, electricity turned off, cellphones switched off, landline canceled outright, and on more than one occasion (this weekend in particular) eaten little more than buttered macaroni as I waited for an overdue PayPal deposit to arrive (3-4 days? Come on!). Having a steady income will be a welcome mental break, believe me.

Oh… and by the way… if you’re in the market… he’s looking for a job.

The fact that mobile technology is still in its infancy means a everyone is going to have their own opinion. The opinion of Michael Mace at Mobile Opportunity starkly contrasts that of Mr. Beattie. He claims that Mobile Applications will soon be dead while the Mobile Web will soon be the “it” thing.

Unfortunately, Mr. Mace basis the first portion of his argument on the failures of PALM. If anybody is familiar with the brilliance of PALM, they’ll understand that the first half of this sentence fragment is an oxymoron. To use Palm as an example for mobile devices is like using Polaroid as an example for Digital Cameras. They missed their opportunity to grow into something bigger and will soon be left behind.

Although he admits there are exceptions to the rule, he sticks buy his conclusion that: ” If you’re a mobile developer, you should consider stopping native app development and shifting to a mobile-optimized website.”

The most accurate criticism is that, as Elia Freedman so cunningly put it, “there are three million platforms with a hundred users each.” Another vote for Android anybody?

I respectfully disagree with the opinion that mobile ANYthing is dead. In fact, the mobile revolution is just starting. I could explain why, but an article by Daniel Langendorf called, “The Mobile Web Isn’t Dead. It’s Just Starting.” says mostly everything I would have.

Thanks Daniel… will all these Mobile death prophecies filling up my feed reader, your article prevented me from questioning my sanity.

Apple and Google Need Eachother

There are many reasons the government cracks down on monopolies, but it all boils down to the fact that competition is good for the world. It’s even good for the companies involved. Think about it…

Competition fuels progress and just as in sports and entertainment, businesses will often “play up” to their competition. They want the edge. They need the edge. And if they feel like they are being “pushed” they will constantly strive to be ahead of the curve. Apple and Google will push eachother forward as we witness the birth of a mobile renaissance and a technological revolution.

But it’s more than that. In each of the three above cases there were fans who took “sides” and cheered on their favorite of the 2 rivals. Tupac and Biggie were just two men… but their rivalry sparked a complete rivalry between the East Coast and the West Coast in the United States. Right now there are plenty of other Mobile OS platforms out there just as there were plenty of other East Coast Rappers and West Coast Rappers when the Biggie/Pac feud began. But its a matter of timing.

When Android was announced, many people were disappointed there wouldn’t be a single, heaven-sent gPhone. But when analysts explained further, people wised up a bit and the outlook became pretty sunny. The lackluster line of Mobile OS available was actually a detriment to Google. The cries of, “How will this be any different than Windows Mobile,” and “Google is only good at search and they fail at everything else,” became louder. And then along comes Apple with their SDK.

The Apple SDK was announced with much fanfare and an immediate rivalry was spawned between Apple Fanboys and Android Enthusiasts. Now that Android (and Apple) had a formidable and timely opponent, attention was refocused on what exactly an Open Mobile OS would mean. Google can thank Apple for this.

When Apple makes a move - people notice. They are already successful in the mobile arena and iPhone owners are a loyal and faithful group of people who identify with the brand. They are the brand. When they realize that APPLE is going to do what ANDROID just announced… all of a sudden the “stupid ideas that will never work,” became, “We’ll soon be living in a Mobile2.0 World and Apple, not Android, will take us there.”

Enlightening these early adopting Apple fans to the possibilities of Mobile’s next technology wave will prove instrumental in getting Android off the ground. Apple helped Android because they have the two companies have the same exact message when it comes to designing an Open Mobile OS. Apple opened the minds of early adopters to Android.

Android isn’t the only company getting a boost - this healthy rivalry is a two way street. Think about the concepts behind Mobile Applications. Many of them include social networking and user generated content integration ideas. Many, such as shopping comparisons based on your location and locational based barcode coupons, require the participation and sponsorships of businesses. These concepts won’t even approach their full potential unless these Mobile OS platforms are disseminated on a mass scale. Do you think the iPhone can do that alone?

Apple needs Android to help make the Mobile Dreams of the iPhone SDK & Android come true. Third party applications would be tremendously limited in scope and potential if the iPhone were the only host. The applications just wouldn’t be as useful.

How helpful is a permission based “track your friends” application if only 2 or 3 of your friends have iPhones? How cool would it be to have your “I’m Single” app open at the bar so single people nearby could browse/tap eachother if it were only iPhone users that could do so? Sounds more like a 21st century extension of the High School Chess Club to me.

Google Android, and lets not forget all the dedicated players of the Open Handset Alliance, will help get this new wave of Mobile Technology into the hands of the MASSES. Once the masses have the infrastructure and the capabilities of these new Mobile OS Platforms, both Apple and Google are golden. That is when the door will be opened wide for them to walk right into an industry of arguably the highest growth and profit potential.

Anyway you look at it, Apple and Google will be splitting market share for the mobile market. But with a mutually beneficial rivalry of epic proportions, Apple and Google will put their platforms into the hands of the masses and in turn, will be splitting a pie that is worth billions more than it would be if they didn’t have eachother.

Only three questions remain: Who is Ali/Tupac/McGwire and who is Frazier/Biggie/Sosa?